A clear analysis of the meeting between Zelensky and Biden

Bobyrenko Viktor

Head of the Expert Group of the Bureau of Policy Analysis. He studied at the National Academy for Public Administration. Master of Public Administration, Political Scientist, Political Technologist. Studies the…

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03 September 2021
A clear analysis of the meeting between Zelensky and Biden

The United States will insist on thorough reforms in Ukraine, but unpopular decisions hit the ratings of politicians. 

Let us recall, for example, the medical reform of Uliana Suprun and the change of the banking system from the team of Valeriia Hontareva. 
Will the current government be able to defend the interests of the state or will it try to keep the rating? 

Analysis of the meeting between Zelensky and Biden from Viktor Bobyrenko 
A brief analysis of Biden’s meeting with Zelensky and the issued Joint Statement on Strategic Partnership. 
I proceed from several paradigms in the analysis: 

1) The United States is strongly connected and dependent on civil society. There is no Illia Kyva among the scientists; experts are collected and are often even objective, and civil society reacts badly to lies. There, the authorities are forced to adhere to ethical standards. And institutions work there regardless of who is in power. 

2) American diplomacy corresponds to the basic anecdote: 
- Odessa radio asks “How a woman differs from a professional diplomat?” 
- If a woman says “no”, it means that you can have relations with her. If a woman says that “relations may be possible”, it means “no”. If a woman says “yes”, then it is no longer a woman. 
If a diplomat says “yes”, then it means “maybe”. If a diplomat says “maybe”, it means “no”. If a diplomat said “no”, he is not a diplomat. 
That is, Americans do not speak promiscuously but diplomatic. However, smart people understand everything. 
If you disagree with these theses, you may not read further. 

Now the analysis of the Joint Statement 
This is just a statement. The United States has clearly said yes to our partnership. And that means it can be, but… 
What were these “but” from Biden to Zelensky in a face-to-face conversation is still a puzzle for us. About them later. 
But the meeting must be called successful. And for Zelensky, and for Ukraine, and for the United States. And that’s why. 

1) “Thirty years after Ukraine regained its independence, ties between Ukraine and the United States are stronger than ever”, a direct quote from the statement. 
This will allow Zelensky (as Kuleba has already said) to say that it was he who brought relations between Ukraine and the United States to a new level. 

And I would modestly clarify that, first, it is the efforts of the people of Ukraine and its civil society. 

Secondly - employees of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. 
Third, if Ukraine had not been represented on this platform by Zelensky, these ties could have been even stronger. 

Again. The United States knows that the Ukrainian people passed the point of no return to Russia’s zone of influence in 2014. And now, after this statement, President Zelensky has passed this point. 
And this is the main success of Ukraine on September 1. 

2) Furthermore, the United States will now have the opportunity to always catch Zelensky when he screws up. They will remind him of “common values”. After all, this is also stated in the statement.  
And more: “Ukraine’s success is central to the global struggle between democracy and autocracy.” And this is “our response to Chamberlain” from the United States and Joe Biden, and their enemies and allies. This is a statement. And this speaks to the spread of the New Atlantic Charter. And about the basis of the White House’s foreign policy course. And I would emphasize that. This is undoubtedly a success for the United States. 

3) One more interesting quote: 
“The United States supports Ukraine’s right to choose its own foreign policy course free from outside interference, including Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO. 
We also remain committed to assisting Ukraine in the ongoing reforms.”  
And these phrases were definitely written not in our country, but in the White House. How the accents are clearly placed. 

Structurally, the statement itself is divided into 5 paragraphs. According to It is diplomatically, but explicitly stated to Russia that the United States meant hysteria in the Kremlin about “geopolitically unacceptable Ukraine’s accession to NATO, because it is a danger to Russia.” But on the other hand, it is stated for Ukraine in one of the paragraphs that NATO can only be through reforms.

Structurally, the statement itself is divided into 5 paragraphs.
According to them:

Paragraph I: Security and Defense. There was no quantum leap.
The United States is not ready to join the Normandy format. Correct, confident, but general phrases about non-recognition of occupation and support. But it all ends with appeals:
“We call on Russia to honor its ceasefire commitment in eastern Ukraine and to genuinely participate in efforts to resolve the conflict to end the war.”
And the Kremlin’s calls are hard to stop.
They also agreed on what had long been agreed:

“Deepening cooperation in such areas as Black Sea security, cybersecurity, intelligence sharing.”
Again, the United States “supports Ukraine’s right to choose its own foreign policy course free from outside interference.”
Oh, if I support a girl’s right to a happy marriage, it is not a fact that I will look for a bridegroom or prepare a marriage portion for her.
At the time, the United States indicate to Ukraine (and correctly indicate) the reform of the SBU. Which should catch spies, not cover for drugs or pillage in business.
In this section, the guarantee to allocate 60 million to Ukraine for the purchase of the Javelin system seems to be nice. And cooperation in the cybersecurity sector.

Paragraph II: Democracy, justice and human rights
And here the United States give the tasks:
And on NABU, and on SAP, and judicial reform.
Let’s repeat, I fully support this method: you and the Government make reforms, we pass and give the next money.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is “developing an ambitious and integral Transformation Plan, which will be considered at the next meeting of the KSP”.
Do you see the style? Where we are actively and jquickly developing something, it is Kvartal’s entry in the joint text.

Paragraph III: ENERGY SECURITY AND CLIMATE
“Ukraine and the United States contribute to strengthening Ukraine’s energy security through policies of sustainable, effective and long-term solutions, backed by ongoing corporate governance reform.”
Again, everything must be backed up by reforms. In this case - to make effective corporate governance.
And further on attracting investment in the energy sector, reducing emissions. Support for innovation.
Everything is important and correct, but without specifics.
Because governments are going to support the effort.

Here is about Nord Stream 2 too:
“The United States intends to continue to implement statutory measures and energy diplomacy, including through the recent appointment of a Senior Energy Security Adviser, to maintain the transit role and ensure Ukraine’s security of supply during this transitional energy period, and to prevent the Kremlin from using energy as a geopolitical weapons.”
Beautiful. As in the anecdote about diplomats. Solid “yes”, but between the lines - “maybe”. How to behave.

IV ECONOMIC GROWTH AND PROSPERITY
Again, Ukraine’s reform commitments were written in the first instance. In this section - special emphasis on the independence of the National Bank of Ukraine.
It is in the United States under special control, so it is specially inscribed. The efforts of the Ze! Team to saddle an independent institution, mayhem of dismissals and the creation of intolerable working conditions make people anger.
And in general in this section there is a “run through” the financial side. Because everyone thinks of money first. But the West wants to spend them efficiently.
Because an alcoholic can be given cash for treatment, not for another bottle.

In the same section - the development of trade and investment, “pouring water”, such as:
“Ukraine and the United States have completed the preparation of a Memorandum of Understanding on Commercial Cooperation”.
And nice specifics of this section:
“The initial amount of support of the United States from Export-Import Bank (EXIM) for these potential transactions of $ 3 billion could be increased as projects in agribusiness, infrastructure, climate and energy have been developing”. 
But it’s all under discussions. We read between the lines: investment in exchange for reforms. 
But the sums named are concrete and considerable. And the reforms that need to be implemented are concrete. 

V. PANDEMIC COUNTERFEIT AND HUMANITARIAN AID 
A small amount of money here, but still nice. 
Ukraine has been promised an additional $ 12.8 million related to COVID. Most likely we will be given it by tests. 
The US government will also provide Ukraine with an additional $ 45 million in humanitarian aid. 

General conclusion: 
The text was written in the United States with small Ukrainian inserts. 
I would say 80/20. Where there is no specific agreement, there is a blah blah. 
Zelensky himself says that not everything went smoothly. 

This means that he was told that the implementation of reforms is not just talking about them. And just PR at the National Security and Defense Council is not enough. And they apparently showed clear markers in the fight against corruption. 

For example: the real catch-up of Igor Kolomoisky, as a serious for Ukraine oligarch and corruptionist. That’s why the conversation lasted longer than planned. Zelensky heard and understood that. 
In exchange for the recognition of Zelensky as a friend, and the best relations, he was given immeasurable tasks. 
Most of the aid is promised in exchange for reforms
So there is success. Not as we wanted. The main one is that Zelensky has finally turned to the West. Where we have been going to for a long time. 
And yet, he was told: do it and everything will be OK. 

Well, if all goes well, Biden will come to visit. 
This should now become an additional motive for Zelensky to finally undertake reforms.