Winter Is Near (videoblog)

Bobyrenko Viktor

Head of the Expert Group of the Bureau of Policy Analysis. He studied at the National Academy for Public Administration. Master of Public Administration, Political Scientist, Political Technologist. Studies the…

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14 October 2020

Well, the election will take place.

And what is there, beyond the horizon?

In this video, we try to look at least until spring.

How will we spend the winter?

The election process is in full swing in Ukraine. But we all want to look beyond the horizon and see Ukraine after the election, how we will enter a new year and what will be in spring.

To do this, it is necessary to understand what the main factors will affect policy in Ukraine.

It must be noted that Ukraine is an object of influence for many global players. Not only the foreign, but also the domestic policy of Ukraine is under influence and will be influenced by many players. The main thing is that Russia is not a full-fledged empire without Ukraine. Therefore, Ukraine as a satellite or as part of Russia is the main Kremlin's strategy.

And the strategic initiative on Russian-Ukrainian relations is unfortunately in the hands of the Kremlin. We can only react quickly to Putin's moves. Therefore, all predictions and forecasts are only in how far Moscow can go.

During the Caucasus 2020 training, many sites were deployed: ammunition depots, field hospitals, and logistics units. And if they are not scaled down after the training, it will mean that Russia is still preparing for a full-scale invasion.

Another powerful factor that will influence the processes in Ukraine is the attitude of the allies. How ready is the United States, the European Union (or specific Britain, Germany, Poland) to defend Ukraine?

An important factor influencing the process will be the IMF, which will act as a deterrent for the current government, which is ready to restore all the schemes of Yanukovych's time. The economy will also be affected by the departure of non-residents, who have been actively buying a domestic public debt and increasing their portfolios and are now leaving the market.

Unpredictable ‘black swans’ can also become international factors influencing the situation in Ukraine. For example, the escalation of the Armenia-Azerbaijan, Syria and Libya conflicts. And especially - Belarus. After all, distracting Russia in any direction will only make us the 2nd front.

The continuation of the COVID19 epidemic will be influencing the situation in Ukraine and the world. With this in mind, we can only guess how things will go further.

Nevertheless, the main internal factor in policy-making in Ukraine will be the influence of major political teams centered on oligarchs with their information weapons or pro-Putin columns. This is especially true of personnel policy and the adoption of regulations that will facilitate the plunder of the country. The essence of politics in general is the communication of these oligarchic groups with the unsystematic team of the president, which is stuck in the trap of its own promises, none of which can be fulfilled.

Given these factors, we can build the main alternative scenarios to the development of processes in Ukraine. The election clearly showed the disappointment of the electorate: modern fashion turned from new faces to the old businessmen. Now staff appointments (which will be promoted by groups of influence by oligarchs) will be motivated not by the novelty of the candidate, but by the so-called professionalism and experience. Again, we see another new trend.

Given the orientation of the main political groups to the West and Russia, a new myth is created, which Kravchuk has begun to test often: it is necessary to focus not on Moscow or Brussels, but to Ukraine.

We will go our own way - a powerful ideological myth, under which they are trying to create a new electoral niche. In particular, Victory of Palchevskyi and For the Future of Kolomoiskyi are with an eye for this purpose. It is possible that Proposition and other mayoral projects will go the same path. So what could we see here?

Having failed in the local elections, Ze-team (Zelensky) calms down, ceases to seek peace and, without rolling back reforms, remains in the status quo regime, gradually living up to the schemes of Yanukovych's time. That is, they are serving out their terms, contemplating a moderate falling in ratings. Zelensky is a kind of late Yushchenko.

Such a scenario would be simple and possible, if there was no Putin. However, there will a few pro-Russian regional councils in the eastern and southern parts of Ukraine, with the help of which Putin may be trying to destabilize the situation in Ukraine. For example, through their decisions on water supply to the Crimea or on the functioning of the regional second Russian language.

Direct aggression is also possible under the contrived pretext of an ecological catastrophe in the Crimea or direct aggression after some powerful provocation.

A probable option is to provoke Zelensky to dissolve the Verkhovna Rada, and to block members of the Servant of People and OPZZH in the new parliament. Moreover, examples of successful blockades can already be seen in new local councils.

Such a coalition is possible only at the beginning of next year, until the regime finally loses the trust of the people. Russia is interested in such a scenario, because it will definitely lead to an aggressive confrontation between patriotic passionaries and pro-Russian forces (OPZZH will play back the themes of army, language, and faith that are painful for patriots).

As for Ukraine's activity in bringing peacekeeping forces to Donbas, it is possible only under strong political pressure on Russia from the West.

But! The United States will be busy with a probable and difficult process of transferring power, Europe and the whole world will be under the influence of the epidemic until the spring - so the situation of pressure on Russia is unlikely.

Winter is near. It will be long and will not bring us anything good in the political sense.

Unless the Ukrainian people come to their senses and will vote not emotionally, but will use their head.

Choose after thinking. Don't be fooled.